The United States' "small non-agricultural" in August was lower than expected, and the Federal Reserve's "three leaders" let go

On September 5, early trading in Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.21. On Thursday, the US dollar index stabilized and rebounded, finally closing up 0.15% to 98.29. U.S. Treasury yields generally fell, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.162%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields sensitive to Fed policy interest rates closed at 3.598%. Spot gold suffered profit settlement at a historical high, ending its seven consecutive gains, once approaching $3,510/oz during the session, and then erased some of the intraday declines and finally closed down 0.38% to close at $3,545.78/oz; spot silver fell below $41/oz and finally closed down 1.32% to $40.67/oz. International crude oil fell for the second consecutive day as the prospect of further increase in production OPEC+ has exacerbated market concerns about oversupply later this year. WTI crude oil hit a low of $62.5 per barrel during the session, and finally closed down 0.76% to $63.07 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 0.88% to $66.69 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$98.21. Market attention turned to Friday's U.S. non-farm employment report (NFP), which will be key to determining whether the market will push expectations higher than the already fully priced rate cut at the Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17. Weak employment data could open the door to a larger adjustment, while strong recruitment data could provide new support for the dollar. In the UK, retail sales and fiscal dynamics remain at the heart of the pound's outlook. Technically, if the U.S. dollar index climbs above 98.50, it will move towards resistance level 99.20–99.40.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1657. The euro (EUR) was under pressure in the U.S. dollar (USD) on Thursday, which pulled back part of Wednesday's gains, trading near 1.1645 at the start of the U.S. session. The mild pullback ew15.cnes as the dollar regains momentum after a mixed set of U.S. labor market data was released, while weak retail sales in the euro area further increased pressure on the euro. Technically, if the EUR/USD remains 1.1658 below the 50 moving average, it will move towards the nearest support level, i.e., in the range of 1.1575–1.1590.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3448. The pound remained volatile against the USD on Thursday, and the pound/dollar struggled to further rise after rebounding from its nearly one-month low on Wednesday. The dollar remained stable under mixed U.S. economic data, which made buyers cautious as concerns about the UK's fiscal outlook increased. Technically, the successful testing of the 1.3400–1.3415 support level will open up the way for testing the next support level 1.3315–1.3330.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Friday, gold hovered around 3551.86. Gold fell slightly as the dollar recovered some of its lost ground, although the latest round of economic data has increased speculation that the Fed could cut interest rates at its September meeting.

Technical: As traders settle profits, the gold upward trend stagnates and gold falls below the key $3,550. The target of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is lower, close to the 70 level in the overbought area. However, sellers need to push the gold price below $3,500 to question the uptrend. Once gold breaks through $3550, traders can challenge the all-time high of $3578. If exceeded, the next cap will be $3,600. Instead, a break below $3550 would hit $3500, followed by a high of $3454 on August 29, before falling to $3400.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Friday, crude oil trading was around 62.99. The U.S. Energy ew15.cnrmation Administration (EIA) said that as of the week ending August 29, energy ew15.cnpanies haveInventories increased by 2.4 million barrels, which is very different from the 2 million barrels estimated by the Reuters survey and is also higher than the 600,000 barrels reported by the American Petroleum Association the day before.

Technical: As traders react to the EIA's weekly oil status report, the report shows that crude oil inventories have increased by +2.4 million barrels from the previous week, so it is falling a bit. A break below the $62.00 level will push WTI crude toward the support level of $60.00 to $60.50.

Forex market trading reminder on September 5, 2025

14:00UK August Halifax Seasonal Adjusted House Price Index Monthly Rate

14:00UK July Seasonal Adjusted Retail Sales Monthly Rate

14:45French July Trade Account

15:00Swiss August Consumer Confidence Index

17:00Eurozone's Second Quarter GDP Annual Rate Revision

17:00Eurozone's Second Quarterly Adjusted Employment Final Value

17:00Eurozone's Second Quarterly Adjusted Quarterly Rate

17:00Eurozone's Second Quarterly Adjusted Quarterly Rate

17:00Eurozone's Second Quarterly Adjusted Quarterly Rate Final Value

20:30 Canadian jobs in August

20:30 US unemployment rate in August

20:30 US non-farm employment after seasonal adjustment

20:30 US average annual per hour wage rate in August

20:30 US average monthly per hour wage rate in August

22:00 US global supply chain pressure index in August

The next day 01:00 US total oil drilling rigs from the United States to September 5

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