The U.S. dollar index remains volatile, and international crude oil surges more than 5%

On October 24, in early Asian trading on Friday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index hovered around 98.93. On Thursday, as investors awaited the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index, the U.S. dollar index remained volatile, falling back after touching the 99 mark, and finally closed up 0.06% at 98.94. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield finally closed at 4.005%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, closed at 3.5010%. The United States dispatched B-1 bombers to fly over the airspace near Venezuela on Thursday. The resumption of geopolitical risks stimulated demand for safe havens. Spot gold interrupted its two-day decline and finally closed up 0.66% at US$4,125.19 per ounce. Spot silver finally closed up 0.86% at US$48.85 per ounce. International oil prices surged to a two-week high due to U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil ew15.cnpanies. WTI crude oil touched $62 and finally closed up 3.99% at $61.74/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 5.38% at $65.90/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 98.93. Traders adjusted positions ahead of Friday's delayed Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, while geopolitical risks from escalating trade tensions rose again. The U.S. dollar has seen the most significant gains against the Japanese yen, which has continued to weaken recently due to Japan's domestic political dynamics and fading policy optimism. Technically, the U.S. Dollar Index continues to attempt to settle above recent resistance at 98.85–99.00. If the USD Index manages to close above the 99.00 level, it will head towards the resistance at 100.00–100.15.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1620. As the U.S. government shutdown extends into its 23rd day, traders await the release of U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data for September. The EUR/USD pair ignored most of the data as traders' attention turned to U.S. trade rhetoric with China, which is expected to show headline and core CPI jumping above 3%. Technically, a break above the 50 EMA at 1.1627 would open the way to a test of resistance at 1.1685–1.1700.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3330. UK retail sales data will kick off Friday's economic data during London trading hours. UK retail sales are expected to contract slightly by 0.2% in September, down from the previous increase of 0.56%. The results of the UK Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey for October will be released later. UK business respondents would normally be expected to see a slight improvement in their views on the state of the UK economy. Technically, if GBP/USD closes below the support level of 1.3330–1.3350, it will head towards the next support level, which is located in the 1.3235–1.3250 range.

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In the Asian market on Friday, gold hovered around 4130.07. Gold's move higher appears to be underpinned by caution ahead of U.S. CPI data, while a firmer U.S. dollar, mixed U.S. Treasury yields and easing trade concerns have kept price action fairly in check.

Technical: Gold's daily chart suggests the pair may extend its recent recovery. After bouncing off the bullish 20 simple moving average (SMA) on Wednesday, the pair managed to stay above it. Meanwhile, technical indicators have stabilized above their midlines after correcting extreme overbought conditions. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair has managed to extend its recovery above the bullish 100 moving average while remaining below the bearish 20 moving average, which acts as resistance around $4,173. Meanwhile, the momentum indicator is heading within negative territory, while the relative strength index (RSI) indicator is hovering around 47.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Friday’s Asian session, crude oil was trading around 61.38. Crude oil surged on Thursday, rising against U.S.Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil extended gains for a third straight day after sanctions were imposed, stoking supply concerns.

Technical: From a technical perspective, the latest move higher has changed the near-term outlook from bearish to neutral-bullish as price challenges the key resistance zone around $61.50 to $61.70, where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is in line with previous horizontal support, which has turned into resistance. This area is limiting upside for now, but a decisive daily close above this barrier would confirm buyers are back in control, paving the way for the next key resistance at the 64.20-day moving average near $100. On the downside, there is immediate support near Thursday's low of $59.60, followed by $57.00 and May's swing low near $55.00. Momentum indicators have turned constructive. The relative strength index (RSI) stands at 54.6, bouncing off near oversold territory, indicating improving bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 27.4, indicating a strengthening trend but not quite an uptrend yet.

Foreign exchange market transaction reminder on October 24, 2025

10:00 The Central ew15.cnmittee of the ew15.cnmunist Party of China holds a press conference

13:00 Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae delivers a policy speech

14:00 British September seasonally adjusted monthly retail sales rate

15:15 French October manufacturing PMI initial value

15:30 Initial value of German manufacturing PMI in October

16:00 Initial value of Eurozone manufacturing PMI in October

16:30 Initial value of British manufacturing PMI in October

16:30 Initial value of British service industry PMI in October

20:30 Annual rate of U.S. non-seasonally adjusted CPI in September

20: 30 US monthly seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate

20:30 US September seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate

20:30 US September non-seasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate

21:45 US October S&P Global Manufacturing PMI initial value

21:45 US October S&P Global Services PMI initial value

22:00 The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in October in the United States

22:00 The final value of the one-year inflation rate expectation in the United States in October

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